Dan Munro

Writer

Trump and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

By

President Trump forcing his way past the Prime Minister of Montenegro

By most accounts, President Trump survived his first foreign trip without a major gaffe, but that’s not to say all of his behavior was presidential — and in many ways, it was a “complete disaster” politically.

While the events of Trump’s trip didn’t produce any major fireworks (as some were expecting), they did add considerably to his long and growing list of abnormal, jaw-dropping behavior.

In fact, what’s emerging is a pattern of reckless, juvenile and boorish behavior that demands both assessment and accountability — even for Trump loyalists. The pattern was clearly evident during the campaign, of course, but as POTUS, it’s quickly deteriorating into a global embarrassment with dire, short term consequences.

I’m not a psychiatrist or psychologist, but the best description I’ve seen of his behavior is the cognitive impairment known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.  The definition from Wikipedia certainly seems (even for a layperson) to be a classic, text-book fit.

Dunning-Kruger: In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias, wherein persons of low ability suffer from illusory superiority when they mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority derives from the metacognitive inability of low-ability persons to recognize their own ineptitude; without such self-awareness, they cannot objectively evaluate their actual competence or incompetence.

Basically, it’s the inability to accurately assess one’s own competence (or lack thereof). At 70, Trump may be physically fit to withstand the rigors of the office, but is he capable of judging his own competence? The evidence that he lacks this basic judgment is growing and compelling.

  • “I’m like, wait a minute. I made a speech. I looked out, the field was, it looked like a million, million and a half people.” President Trump (Jan 21)
  • “Trust me. I’m, like, a smart person.” President Trump at CIA Headquarters (Jan 27)
  • “We’re now having dessert — and we had the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen — and President Xi was enjoying it.” President Trump (Apr 12)
  • “My generals are the most respected that we’ve had in many decades I believe. And they lost Ryan.” President Trump (Feb 27)
  • “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” President Trump (Feb 27)
  • “The plan gets better and better and better, and it’s gotten really, really good. And a lot of people are liking it a lot.” President Trump (on healthcare — Apr 20)
  • “And I don’t watch things that I know are going to be unpleasant.” President Trump (Apr 23)
  • “We have to prime the pump. Have you heard that expression used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just … I came up with it a couple of days ago and I thought it was good.” President Trump (May 4)
  • Pushing his way to the front row for a group photo
  • Asking French President Macron for his cell phone number (May 27)
  • His inappropriate and aggressive “tug n’ shake” death grip

It starts off like a normal, unassuming handshake, until the shakee is pulled suddenly toward the president, resulting in a very unprofessional body-lurch. Trump follows this embarrassment up by reassuring the shakee with an even more awkward top-of-the-hand pat.

This partial list is all within the first 4 months of his presidency and reflects, I believe, a painful and visible ignorance of his own incompetence. This isn’t just bizarre or juvenile behavior for a president (any president), it’s strange behavior for any politician — and there will be consequences.

Here’s the deal: once you elect a clown like Trump, you lose trust not just now but for many years to come. A nation that elects a Trump once could easily elect a similar figure again in the future. That becomes priced into national reputation. For the Germans, South Koreans, Japanese etc. this is no joke: they’ve staked their lives on having stable USA foreign policy. Jeet Heer, Senior Editor at the New Republic

The loss of that national reputation among strong allies happens all too quickly.

The president’s failure to endorse Article 5 in a speech at NATO headquarters, his continued lambasting of Germany and other allies on trade, his apparent decision to walk away from the Paris climate agreement — all suggest that the United States is less interested in leading globally than has been the case for the last 70 years. Ivo H. Daalder, Former US Ambassador to NATO

The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days. German Chancellor Angela Merkel

No freely elected head of government in our country should allow him — or herself to be humiliated in this way — the way this man [Trump], like an autocratic leader, believed he could inflict humiliation in Brussels. Election campaign or no election campaign, in this situation let me be entirely clear — the [German] chancellor represents all of us at summits like these — and I reject with outrage the way this man takes it upon himself to treat the head of our country’s government. That is unacceptable. Martin Schulz (chief political rival to Angela Merkel)

Given his age and his personal history (multiple failed marriages and businesses), we should not expect a significant change in President Trump’s behavior. The Dunning-Kruger effect clearly isn’t grounds for removal under Article 25 of the Constitution, and there may be better attempts by those around him to control and minimize the public view, but as long as Trump is President, we should brace for more of this total incompetence — and the consequences that result.

Back to Current

A Dark Healthcare Truth About Donald Trump

By

Ages ago — all the way back in February of this year — President Donald Trump proudly boasted that healthcare was complicated. He even went as far as to suggest that no one knew of this complexity. It quickly became a laughable Trumpism.

Now, I have to tell you, it’s an unbelievably complex subject. Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated. 

I actually think this “ignorance” supports the argument that Trump suffers from a cognitive impairment known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, but that’s a separate entry in the Trump folder.

Incompetence aside, I don’t believe President Trump was, in fact, all that ignorant about healthcare. At least not the health insurance component he once leveraged against a family member with a significant health condition. This wasn’t just inhuman behavior, it was one that was leveled against a member of his own family. It came across my radar initially because it’s both noteworthy and specifically relevant to healthcare. The full story was actually covered by the New York Daily News in December of 2000.

Even when it comes to a sick baby in his family, Donald Trump is all business. The megabuilder and his siblings Robert and Maryanne terminated their nephew’s family medical coverage a week after he challenged the will of their father, Fred Trump. “This was so shocking, so disappointing and so vindictive,” said niece Lisa Trump, whose son, William, was born 18 months ago at Mount Sinai Medical Center with a rare neurological disorder that produces violent seizures, brain damage and medical bills topping $300,000. 

On March 30, Donald, Maryanne and Robert Trump retaliated. Fred Trump 3rd (Donald’s nephew) received a certified letter informing him the medical benefits that had always been provided to his family by the Trump organization would end on May 1, 2000. 

So — to retaliate against a sibling feud over the sizable estate of Fred Trump, Sr., the Trump organization (in the form of Donald, Maryanne and Robert) cut off health benefits to their nephew even though there were immediate and long-term needs associated with Fred’s son William (diagnosed with cerebral palsy).

As a chronic developmental disability (DD), the fiscal burden associated with cerebral palsy will easily overwhelm most families. In 2003, the CDC estimated the average lifetime costs of a person with cerebral palsy at $921,ooo. Simple inflation and cost-of-living increases over the last 14 years would easily push that average beyond $1 million today.

Fred Trump, 3rd with his son William (circa 2013)

Of course many will consider this old news because the events unfolded in 2000, but I think anyone who uses health benefits as retaliation in a family dispute over money should be challenged in the court of public opinion — especially when the central figure in terminating those benefits now holds the highest elected office in our country AND has the final authority in signing healthcare reform legislation.

It’s certainly easy to claim ignorance over the complexity of health benefits, but using actual health benefits in a familial dispute over money should be at least unconscionable. I’m still struggling to understand which line of basic human decency was crossed when that same individual publicly mocks people with a development disability.

Back to Current

Nick Adkins and the #Pinksocks Tribe

By

Traveling to a healthcare event last year, I shared a long ride from Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport to Nijmegen with Nick Adkins. Nick is one of those larger than life characters in healthcare that’s amassed a sizeable and loyal following — both in real life and on social media channels like Twitter. To that point, we had only traded tweets — so it was a great chance to meet him in person. If there’s an opposite to the character of a grifter or con artist it’s a gifter — someone who gives freely of their time and energy. That’s probably the best single description I can think of for Nick. He’s a gifter.

So just what is his gift? He has many (including some amazing stories), but as an extension of his overall generosity, he freely and liberally gives out pairs of pink socks wherever he goes — and pretty much to anyone who will accept the gift. At major healthcare events (and some minor ones), he has boxes shipped in and they’re usually available as a part of a speaking engagement — mostly where Nick is talking about building a tribe of people that wear pink socks.

There’s a twitter hashtag #pinksocks, a website, and the interwebs are littered with pictures of this growing tribe. Maybe you’ve seen the tweets, the people, the pictures — or even wear a pair yourself. Here’s just one example.

The tribe is growing — and officially includes Royalty — literally. Here’s Nick gifting a pair to Princess Laurentien of The Netherlands.

Nick gave me a pair as well, of course, but I was both hesitant and skeptical of the meaning and purpose behind the gift. By wearing pink socks, what I am signing up for? What cause or group am I visually endorsing? Who pays — and who benefits? It’s a reporter’s instinct — at times a curse — but it also comes from years of covering healthcare where truly free gifts are rare (valet parking?) and many of the stories I seem to come across are variations of horrific or criminal abuse — often at scale.

And then recently I came across a story that was published years ago on Reddit — and it made me think of Nick and his pink socks. Absent a formal meaning I think the Reddit story is a worthy contender for what the #pinksocks could mean. At least it is to me. It’s also a great road story — for all of us on the journey ahead. Maybe you’ve already seen it (originally posted here), but it’s well worth another read.

This past year I have had 3 instances of car trouble. A blow out on a freeway a bunch of blown fuses and an out of gas situation. All of them were while driving other people’s cars which, for some reason, makes it worse on an emotional level. It makes it worse on a practical level as well, what with the fact that I carry things like a jack and extra fuses in my car, and know enough not to park, facing downhill, on a steep incline with less than a gallon of fuel.

Anyway, each of these times this shit happened I was DISGUSTED with how people would not bother to help me. I spent hours on the side of the freeway waiting, watching roadside assistance vehicles blow past me, for AAA to show. The 4 gas stations I asked for a gas can at told me that they couldn’t loan them out “for my safety” but I could buy a really shitty 1-gallon one with no cap for $15. It was enough, each time, to make you say shit like “this country is going to hell in a handbasket.”

But you know who came to my rescue all three times? Immigrants. Mexican immigrants. None of them spoke a lick of the language. But one of those dudes had a profound effect on me.

He was the guy that stopped to help me with a blow out with his whole family of 6 in tow. I was on the side of the road for close to 4 hours. Big jeep, blown rear tire, had a spare but no jack. I had signs in the windows of the car, big signs that said NEED A JACK and offered money. No dice. Right as I am about to give up and just hitch out of there a van pulls over and dude bounds out. He sizes the situation up and calls for his youngest daughter who speaks English. He conveys through her that he has a jack but it is too small for the Jeep so we will need to brace it. He produces a saw from the van and cuts a log out of a downed tree on the side of the road. We rolled it over; put his jack on top, and bam, in business. I start taking the wheel off and, if you can believe it, I broke his tire iron. It was one of those collapsible ones and I wasn’t careful and I snapped the head I needed clean off. Fuck.

No worries. He runs to the van, gives it to his wife and she is gone in a flash, down the road to buy a tire iron. She is back in 15 minutes, we finish the job with a little sweat and cussing (stupid log was starting to give), and I am a very happy man. We are both filthy and sweaty. The wife produces a large water jug for us to wash our hands in. I tried to put a $20 in the man’s hand but he wouldn’t take it so I instead gave it to his wife as quietly as I could. I thanked them up one side and down the other. I asked the little girl where they lived, thinking maybe I could send them a gift for being so awesome. She says they live in Mexico. They are here so mommy and daddy can pick peaches for the next few weeks. After that they are going to pick cherries then go back home. She asks if I have had lunch and when I told her no she gave me a tamale from their cooler, the best fucking tamale I have ever had.

So, to clarify, a family that is undoubtedly poorer than you, me, and just about everyone else on that stretch of road, working on a seasonal basis where time is money, took an hour or two out of their day to help some strange dude on the side of the road when people in tow trucks were just passing me by. Wow.

But we aren’t done yet. I thank them again and walk back to my car and open the foil on the tamale cause I am starving at this point and what do I find inside? My fucking $20 bill! I whirl around and run up to the van and the guy rolls his window down. He sees the $20 in my hand and just shaking his head no like he won’t take it. All I can think to say is “Por Favor, Por Favor, Por Favor” with my hands out.

Dude just smiles, shakes his head and, with what looked like great concentration, tried his hardest to speak to me in English: ‘Today you … tomorrow me.’

In our travels, sometimes gifters present with a car jack and a tamale. Other times it’s a simple pair of socks to remind us of our humanity and vulnerability. Often their handiwork isn’t visible beyond a single act of unseen kindness, but sometimes we can see it in something as simple as an article of clothing. If you happen to come across someone wearing a pair of #pinksocks, just remember — it’s likely because a lone gifter named Nick decided to make a tribe out of people who were actually presented with more than just a pair of colorful socks. They were also presented with a free and simple choice. To join.

Back to Current